Tag: Blackjack Odds

Blackjack Strategy: Basic Strategy and Losses

Casinos and online casinos love to perpetuate the idea that blackjack is the one casino game in which the house can be beat. They will even admit that you need a blackjack strategy to beat the house. And they are more than willing to perpetuate the myth that blackjack strategy is the key to beating the house.

And they would be lying to you.

It is true that basic strategy is a major tool against the house in blackjack, but it will not beat the house on its own. Playing according to basic strategy can lower the house edge to 0.5%. But players must play it perfectly, otherwise that 0.5% is not achievable.

Even if you are playing perfect basic strategy there will be times that you lose a round. This is because you only have a 48% chance of winning (ignoring pushes) in blackjack, even if you are using basic strategy. Think about it

Blackjack Odds: Face Up Games

Blackjack games, in general, come in two varieties. Forget house rules and blackjack variations for the moment. I am talking about run of the mill, general casino blackjack.

When you walk into a brick and mortar casino and amble your way over to the blackjack tables you will see two types of games right off the bat. In some games the players will be holding their cards and at other tables the players are not even touching their cards, let alone holding them.

What is the deal with this?

When only or two decks are being used the players will be allowed to hold the cards

Blackjack Odds of Winning

Time to test your blackjack knowledge:

What are the blackjack odds of winning if you ignore the ties?

The answer is 48%.

Pushes, also known as ties, will happen around 9% of the time. But excluding those pushes, your odds of winning are 48% of the time with you and 52% of the time against you. And this is if you are playing according to basic strategy.

You might be wondering how you could possibly make money on this game if you are odds on to lose more often than you would win.

Remember that the 48% of the time you are expected to win is all wins, including the wins you have with natural blackjacks. When you win with a natural blackjack you receive a 3-2 payout instead of a 1-1 payout like you would with a standard win.

So say you are wagering $10 and you win the round, you would receive $10. But if you were to win with a natural blackjack you would win $15. The times that you win with a natural blackjack puts a little more in your bankroll.

Another occasion in which you make more money than the standard 1-1 is when you double down. The payout for a successful double down is 2-1. Again, say you were wagering $10 per hand of blackjack, doubled down and won, you would receive $20 instead of $10.

While there is nothing extra blackjack strategy-wise that you can do to increase your odds of winning with a natural blackjack, when you double down is in your hands.

Doubling down is a good play to make money in blackjack. But it is also a fast way to lose money. The key to making the most of this blackjack play is to know when the most advantageous time to double down are, and that knowing comes from a basic strategy chart. A basic strategy chart gives the best times to double down when your cards and the dealer

Blackjack Odds with a Dealer 5 or 6

Okay this one is something of a blackjack myth, but it does have an impact on your blackjack odds.

Players tend to believe that when the dealer deals himself a 5 or 6 up that they are sure to win. They know that 5s and 6s are the weakest up cards for the dealer to have in blackjack. So they will automatically begin counting up the money they are sure is coming their way.

However, those 5s and 6s are not quite as much of a sure thing as you might think they are. In fact the dealer has less than a 50% chance of busting with those up cards. With a 5 showing the dealer only has a 41.8% chance of busting. And with a 6 up he only stands a 42.3% chance of busting.

So how does this translate to blackjack odds?

Well the dealer has to play until he can stand on a hard 17 and higher or until he busts. He will not finish with a 16 or below like a player can. So there are chances for him to win:

5 up:
12.2% on 17
12.2% on 18
11.8% on 19
11.2% on 20
10.8% on 21

6 up:
16.6% on 17
10.6% on 18
10.6% on 19
10.2% on 20
9.7% on 21

Any one of those other outcomes could happen. And they all mean that you could lose, giving the dealer a 58.2% or 57.7% chance of winning respectively.

Typically when the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 the player is holding a stiff hand. In those cases we are hoping for the dealer to bust. But as you can see, he has a better shot of winning in total than he does in losing. Which means that your blackjack odds of winning are not as high as this blackjack myth leads players to believe.

This does not mean that players should feel any less for a 5 or 6 up card. It still remains that the dealer has the highest chance of busting in blackjack with a 5 or 6 showing. This only means that players

Basic Blackjack Card Counting

There are any number of blackjack card counting systems out there, ranging from complex to simple. Obviously if you have decided to begin learning card counting it makes sense to start with an easy system. Then, once you have become skilled at using that system, learn a newer more complex one if you would like.

The easiest blackjack card counting system is also one of the most common. It is called the Hi Lo system, and it is the one that the majority of beginning counters start with. It is a basic counting system whose only demand on your math skills is to add and subtract a positive one and a negative one.

Almost all of the cards have a positive or negative counting value assigned to them. The only cards that do not are 7, 8 and 9. Those three are considered neutral and have no value in this counting system. The other cards are assigned like so:

2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all +1
10, J, Q, K, Ace are all -1

The way this system works is that the player will add up the values of the cards that are on the table, including the dealer

Online Blackjack vs. Casino Blackjack

First off, what exactly is casino blackjack? Casino blackjack is a way of differentiating between blackjack that is played online and blackjack that is played in a brick and mortar casino. Without having to say blackjack in a brick and mortar casino every time.

So now that we have that established, what is the difference between?

First off, when you play blackjack online you are playing alone. It is not like some of those online poker rooms in which you are playing at the same table with other people that could be anywhere in the world. Online blackjack is one on one play between you and the dealer.

This does not sound like a big deal but it actually has quite an impact on your blackjack odds.

In blackjack, even with basic strategy, you are playing with less than 50% chance of winning a round. This means that you have a greater chance of losing than winning a round. And the more rounds you play per hour, the larger the chances of losing more money. This is why online blackjack players are cautioned to slow their rate of play.

When playing at a full table, like you can do with casino blackjack, you might only have fifty five rounds in an hour. But playing one on one in online blackjack you could wind up playing upwards of two hundred rounds in a single hour.

So one of the differences between online blackjack and casino blackjack is the change in the rate of play simply because you can only play one on one in online blackjack.

Changes in Blackjack in Nevada

Blackjack payout or a dancer, which would you pick?

It seems that while the older generation of blackjack players would like a nice table off to the side where they can concentrate on their strategies and the game, the younger generation of blackjack players seem to prefer other things.

Like dancers.

In the last several months party pits have begun to pop up in brick and mortar casinos around Nevada. In these party pits there can be found blackjack tables that are positioned so that they are facing towards a stage. And on such stages are dancers.

On the surface casinos may appear to be whining about the increased cost of employing dancers, but I do not believe that this is the true case that lies beneath the surface.

Because of the increased cost of dancers, casinos are having to decrease the amount of their blackjack payouts. This is one of the explanations for the recent increase in the 6-5 payouts that are replacing the standard 3-2 payouts.

The reason I do not think the casinos mind this increased cost of dancers is because they can use that as a mask to cover the reason behind decreasing the payout. Because we all know that casinos are always looking for a way to drag a little more money out of a player.

Think about it. Imagine a young man approaching the blackjack tables in one of these party pits. His eyes keep coming back to the dancers. He probably will not really read over the house rules on the felt, which means that he will miss the 6-5 payout on the felt. Those same dancers will also cause him to focus less on his strategy

Blackjack Odds of Winning and Losing

What makes blackjack one of the most popular casino games out there?

Simply put, it is the myth that blackjack is the one casino game in which the player can gain the edge and beat the house.

Truthfully that can happen. But it does not happen just from sitting down at the blackjack table or by logging in to your favorite online casino to play a few rounds. To beat the house at blackjack you must study the game, its rules and its strategies. It takes practice. And it also takes card counting.

So truth be told, online blackjack cannot be beat because a player cannot count cards. This is because the game functions similarly to a blackjack table with a CSM in a brick and mortar casino. A CSM is a Continuous Shuffle Machine, and it prevents any cards from being discarded because at the end of a round all the just-used cards are put in the little machine, the entire deck reshuffled and then the next round dealt.

So you must be playing blackjack in a brick and mortar casino

Blackjack Strategy: Can Insurance Help Me?

Recently I was asked a question in regards to blackjack strategy and insurance. The young man in question plays blackjack online, and had heard that insurance can sometimes be advantageous for the player. He wanted to know if this were true or not.

In a way, yes, it is true. But! But it cannot be used for online blackjack.

In order to make insurance work for you in terms of blackjack strategy you need to be a card counter. And I do not just mean that you have just started counting cards in the casino. You need to be a strong card counter.

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